MFN, Bribes and Fast Cars

Pakistan has spoken about giving India Most Favored Nation (MFN) status, and Ajay Shah has written a post with a fairly optimistic assessment of the situation.

While I don’t share his optimism there were a few new things I learned there and the post throws good light on the role that Dubai plays in India – Pakistan trade.

You know that RBI has deregulated the savings account rate, and banks have already started offering higher rates on savings account – China has observed this move and has a list of things that they can learn from this move. However, these are all things that they should learn to avoid!

Transparency International has released their new Bribe Payers Index for 2011. Netherlands is perceived to be the least corrupt, US is at number 10, India is 19, China is 27 and Russia is 28.

I don’t think there is a single developed country which has a corruption problem, and yet economists sometimes talk of corruption and bribes greasing the economy.

Singapore is number 8 on that list, and they were happy to see their unemployment rate fall unexpectedly this week.

Finally, Scott Adams writes about how stressful it is to be the least successful person in your reference group, and how changing his reference group and doing something that he was the best in within his reference group helped him .

That’s it for this week – enjoy your weekend!

Too good to be true offers

I’ve encountered three too good to be true offers this week in some shape or form. I have personally seen one of them, have been told about one by a friend, and a third one by a reader here.

The easiest to identify among these was the one that my friend came up with. He is looking to buy a used car, and a popular way to do that in the US is to go to Craigslist and search for cars.

He came up with one that he really liked a lot and from the low price and good condition it was immediately clear to me that it is a scam of some sort.

I asked him to send an email but not give out his phone number or anything else. Within a matter of minutes, the other person responded saying that he was an Oceanographer and out at sea, and if my friend wired him the money, he will have the car shipped to him immediately.

It’s an obvious and old scam that Craigslist themselves warns everyone about.

The second one was one that I faced myself, and it went like this. I have subscribed to a website for some financial information and they sent out an email last Thursday saying that they have this stock pick that will definitely go upwards from Monday, and they will reveal this stock to their subscribers on Friday.

Now, this is not a paid subscription, I am a free subscriber and these people have never sent an email earlier so I was really surprised to see that and I thought this is ridiculous – you are sending me an email to tell me that you will send me an email?

Then the next day they did actually send the email and name of a penny stock with the promise of a quick buck. I ignored that as well.

Then on Saturday, they actually called to tell me about the stock pick and for me to make sure that I don’t miss the opportunity to buy the stock. I missed the call so they left a voice mail.

I then observed this stock on Monday and it went up by quite a bit, then again on Tuesday when they sent a reminder email.

My curiosity was really piqued by then and I’d be lying if I said I didn’t consider buying a little of it, but good sense prevailed and I left it at alone. Then yesterday the stock fell 6%, and today it fell by 17%!

I can see that this penny stock has still jumped more than 100% in the last 5 days, but I really don’t know if anyone has really benefited from this or if it just hits the circuit without allowing anyone to really buy into it, or even worse whether it will come down like a pack of cards in the days to come.

This is a curious situation and I’m happy to view this from the sidelines. It’s a too good to be true offer and it looks like a pump and dump situation where things end badly for the guy who owns the stock last, and I don’t want to be that guy.

I can’t think of how someone can have such concrete information of daily movement of stocks unless they are manipulating prices, and I want no part of such a risky and what appears to be shady business.

The third incident is of a reader leaving a comment on the suggest a topic page about companies that offer very high returns for your investment, and one in particular that offers a 36% annual return.

This is just way too high to be reasonable and common sense and even historical experience shows us that usually these schemes end badly. There is normally no easy way to prove them before hand and even when you do present proof like in Madoff’s case – where Mr. Markopolos sent detailed information to SEC at the beginning of the decade that Madoff was a fraud – no one took notice for a long time!

I think people fall victim to their greed and ignore the warning signs by taking comfort in numbers, or by looking at the credibility of the person who is attached with the scheme even when history tells us that only people who can muster a lot of credibility can run such frauds and are most typical of doing something like this in the first place.

After all, Madoff ran NASDAQ once, and if there are a large number of people who fall for something – then that means a large number of people lose money along with you, just that – it doesn’t protect you from any loss.

I’ve personally avoided every offer that looks too good to be true that I have ever come across, and I just wish and hope that everyone else is as skeptical about these type of offers as well and remembers that a fool and his money are soon parted.

This post was from the Suggest a Topic page.

Free Perfios Accounts For Two More People

As you know we had a free give – away sponsored by Perfios some time ago, and 5 winners got free Perfios accounts.

There were some delays that a couple of people faced while getting their accounts, and that was primarily because I wasn’t dealing directly with Perfios but an agency that was representing them.

When their Chief Evangelist Adi found out about the delays, he stepped in and got all issues resolved with lightning speed. This was not really an issue with them, but he still took complete responsibility and got the people their necessary access.

As if that weren’t enough, he emailed me saying that he wanted to give away two more 1 year gold subscriptions for OneMint readers because he felt bad about the delay.

I’m deeply impressed by how proactive and passionate he is and I want to thank him for getting these two people new 1 year gold subscriptions.

Like last time, I used the random number generator and the two people who will get this account are:

  • 83 Hemal
  • 52 Ams

Congratulations to the two of you and I will email you shortly to connect you with Adi and get the account.

What are perpetual bonds?

Perpetual bonds are bonds that don’t have a maturity date, and to compensate for the fact that investors can never redeem them – they pay a higher rate than other bonds with a similar credit profile.

They are not all that popular and I could not find references of many perpetual bond issues, and there seem to be more dollar denominated perpetual bond issues than rupee denominated ones.

The company that issues the perpetual bonds normally has an option to call them which means that they can decide to redeem the bonds at the end of certain time periods say 5 or 10 years, and the Tata Steel perpetual bond issue had a step up option also which means that if the bond is not called within a certain time frame then the company will have to pay a higher rate of interest on them. They issued the bonds at 11.8%, and if the company didn’t call the bonds within 10 years then the coupon rate would increase by 300 basis points.

They are supposed to be listed on the stock exchange also, but from what I can see there isn’t any trading in them at all. If you know of a perpetual bond that is listed on an exchange then please leave a comment here.

While this may be of interest to pension funds and institutional investors, I don’t see any value in this for retail investors.

I can’t think of a single situation where someone will be better off with one or two extra percentage points in interest income every year with the trade off that they may never see their capital back. That doesn’t appeal to me at all.

These bonds are good for banks and other companies to raise money and shore up their capital and also good for pension funds who would like to lock on to the high interest rates, and if they got the principal redeemed then they anyway need to re-invest it in another instrument, but as far as retail investors are concerned – I don’t see any utility in them.

This post was from the Suggest a Topic page.