A few days ago I had a short exchange with Tejus Sajwani on Twitter (who by the way you should definitely follow) when he asked the following question:
Without AAP, if Modi hadn’t done well in coming elections, he would have lost his raison d’être. But now, even if BJP doesn’t do well, Modi can still stick around, saying that BJP was jilted at the altar by an errant bride that ran off with AAP! So perhaps then, we have a cobbled up coalition for a few months, which perhaps ends up giving BJP a better chance in a 2nd election in say 1.5-2 years? Plausible??
This was my initial response:
@tejus_sawjiani Perhaps not because AAP won’t win enough seats to make a difference to BJP’s fortunes.
— Manshu (@Manshu) January 5, 2014
I’m embarrassed to say that at the time I didn’t realize that the current UPA II government has 276 MPs which is just one more than the 275 MPs required to stay in power, and also a little confused because the Lok Sabha website itself gives a different number.
|Parties||According to Lok Sabha Website||According to Wikipedia|
|Indian National Congress||204||206|
|Nationalist Congress Party||9||9|
|Rashtriya Lok Dal||5||5|
|Jammu & Kashmir National Conference||3||3|
|Indian Union Muslim League||2||3|
|Kerala Congress (Mani)||1||1|
|Sikkim Democratic Front||1||1|
|All India United Democratic Front||1||1|
|Bahujan Samaj Party||21||21|
|Rashtriya Janata Dal||3||4|
After checking with a few people, I feel that the Lok Sabha website is incorrect, but please leave a comment if you have any insight on this.
Going back to the original question, I think it is quite possible that the scenario Tejus mentioned plays out because AAP is planning to contest about 300 seats, and winning even 20 of those will give them significant sway over BJP which is expected to win the most seats.
This will create any coalition very difficult, and a distinct possibility for a re-election which the market never likes. I think this view is only beginning to gain momentum in the popular press now, but I feel it won’t be long before it gets a lot of attention, and rightly so.
Finally, it is worth mentioning here that I like AAP and although I frown upon many of their left leaning policies, overall, I think they are much better than the alternatives, and if nothing else, I feel that this is the best bad idea we have sir, by far.