IRDA to continue regulating ULIPs

You have most probably read about this already, so I am just going to do a quick post and send you the way of Dhirendra Kumar’s excellent piece in Value Research where he talks about what this decision means to you. His piece is much better than anything I could have written about this topic, and I hope all of you read the whole thing and pay good attention to it.

Excerpt:

Over the last couple of days, you may have heard and read in the media that the ULIP battle is over and the government has changed the relevant laws to ensure that IRDA continues to regulate ULIPs. Don’t believe this for one moment-nothing is over. All that has happened is that the government has decided to throw investor to the wolves. Investors will now themselves have to take the full responsibility of discovering the truth about this most toxic of all asset types and keeping their money safe from it. Given the enormous financial clout and the marketing hype of the insurance industry (not to speak of their tame regulator), expect no more than some cosmetic changes which enable insurers to give a fig-leaf of a PR spin that if there were any problems with ULIPs, they have been fixed.

Now you can monitor how the Infrastructure sector is doing

The Planning Commission has come up with a great new idea of making the infrastructure sector progress information available online. Now anyone with an internet connection can see how the different infrastructure ministries are faring with respect to their targets.

This is awesome transparency and as time goes by – this site will have data ranging for multiple years, and we’d be able to compare the progress made under different governments and ministers.

I took a look at some of the data available on the Monitorable Targets and Milestones for 2010 – 11 website, and compile this graph here.

For this post, let me share the graph on road completion for the year 2009 – 10 with you. This has targets vs. actuals, and is broken down according to the various phases of National Highways Development Project (NHDP).

Construction Completed 2009 - 10 (in Kms)
Construction Completed 2009 - 10 (in Kms)

A quick scan of the graph shows you that apart from NHDP V, no phase could meet its targets. It also shows you the relative size of the various phases.

Here is a description of the various phases found on the NHAI website:

NHDP Phase I : NHDP Phase I was approved by Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs (CCEA) in December 2000 at an estimated cost of Rs.30,000 crore comprises mostly of GQ (5,846 km) and NS-EW Corridor (981km), port connectivity (356 km) and others (315 km). GQ is Golden Quadrilateral.

NHDP Phase II : NHDP Phase II was approved by CCEA in December 2003 at an estimated cost of Rs.34,339 crore (2002 prices) comprises mostly NS-EW Corridor (6,161 km) and other National Highways of 486 km length, the total length being 6,647 km. The total length of Phase II is 6,647 km.

NHDP Phase-III: Government approved on 5.3.2005 upgradation and 4 laning of 4,035 km of National Highways on BOT basis at an estimated cost of Rs. 22,207 crores (2004 prices). Government approved in April 2007 upgradation and 4 laning at 8074 km at an estimated cost of Rs. 54,339 crore.

NHDP Phase V: CCEA has approved on 5.10.2006 six laning of 6,500 km of existing 4 lane highways under NHDP Phase V (on DBFO basis). Six laning of 6,500 km includes 5,700 km of GQ and other stretches.

NHDP Phase VI: CCEA has approved on November 2006 for 1000 km of expressways at an estimated cost of Rs. 16680 crs .

NHDP Phase VII: CCEA has approved on December 2007 for 700 km of Ring Roads, Bypasses and flyovers and selected stretches at an estimated cost of Rs. 16680 crs .

These numbers may or may not please you, but the transparency that this process brings in is surely fantastic. I hope the mainstream media takes notice of this and these measures become actively targeted so that we know how effective various departments and ministries have been in implementing their plans.

Dow Jones falls about a 1000 points

The big story of the day is the dramatic fall of Dow Jones which shed about a 1,000 points before recovering, and closing just 347 points down. The WSJ has this on the subject (emphasis mine):

At its afternoon low the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down almost 1,000 points, hurt by sharp drops in Procter & Gamble, 3M and other companies that traders said were subject to heavy selling by so-called black boxes, or automated trading systems.

U.S. stocks plummeted on Thursday afternoon in a furious selloff accelerated by automated orders and possible erroneous trades.

Several market watchers said they heard a major firm may have accidentally released an errant program, where a trader accidentally placed an order to sell $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of e-minis, the futures contracts tied to equity indexes.

I had no idea such a thing was even possible. I hope we get to know the real reasons behind this because drops like these are quite scary, and even more, if human errors and computer programs cause them.

Some good news for savers

Although a few days old; I missed this story somehow. Nevertheless, there is some bit of good news for Indians who have money in a savings account.

For some twisted reason, banks used to take the minimum balance of your account between the 10th and last day of the month, and calculated interest on that. So, if you had a low balance on one day but a decent amount for the rest of the month – your interest would still be calculated based on the lowest balance.

Example: You have 40,000 from Feb 1st to 25th, but on the 26th, you pay off your car and housing loan EMI, due to which your balance comes down to just 5,000.

The bank will pay you interest for the whole month of February only on Rs. 5,000.

This is pretty unfair, and it is easy to see how this benefits banks.

The RBI has now asked banks to pay interest to savings account holders on a daily basis. This will be effective from the 1st of April 2010, and will ensure that you get money on whatever is in your account, and not just the minimum balance.

This will of course dent the profits of the banks by a bit, – Bank of Baroda (BoB) expects their net interest margin (NIM) to decline by 0.12%, but that is a small price to pay for fairness.

If you are interested in bank savings in a bank, do check out my page on bank interest rates in India.

Photo Credit: Alan Cleaver

Program trading picking up in India

The Business Standard has a story about program / algorithmic / high frequency trading gathering steam that caught my eye today.

The story reminded me of the High Frequency Trading uproar in the US a few months ago, and I think India is going down the same path as far as this type of trading is concerned.

Program or algorithmic trading is automated trading that is done by computers without any manual intervention, and is done at high speeds.

From Business Standard:

Algorithmic trading uses strategies that exploit short-lived market opportunities and depend highly on execution speed. Essentially, set software programmes decide when, how and where to trade, without the need for human intervention.

The story talks about algorithmic trading gaining currency in the last year and top brokers expecting it to continue momentum going forward.

A big part (or possibly all of it?) of program trading is arbitrage, buying and selling at high speeds and taking advantage of the price mismatch that exists in the market. As US Investment banks have shown, this is highly profitable too, so there is every reason to believe that Indian brokers are going to invest and scale up quite a bit.

In fact, NSE has already signed with 60 members to allow them to co-locate their servers close to the exchange servers.

From BS:

NSE has already signed with 60 members for a co-location facility, whereby they can place their trading servers close to the exchange’s engine for Rs 22.5 lakh on a first-come-first-served basis. Co-location saves crucial milliseconds from the time it takes to place an order and its receipt at the other end. The broker with his server next to the exchange engine gets a price feed that is updated every three-four milliseconds, while a broker at a remote place will get this feed updated every 30-40 milliseconds. SMC, which had applied for four rack spaces with NSE, was allotted two. It would be allotted the other two soon. Each rack can easily handle two servers, each of which can handle orders worth Rs 200 crore.

So, basically, some market participants will have an advantage in terms of being able to execute faster than everyone else and getting price information faster than everyone else. This is great for the broker who will make money out of this edge, and for the stock exchange which will make commissions on increased volumes.

To you and me, it is most probably a disadvantage, and when I first heard about this concept, – I wondered how is this even legal. But, that’s just how it is. At least until the next scam or market meltdown anyway.

Why the banks are not lending

The following is a guest post by The Weakonomist from Weakonomics.com

Back in 2007, banks were starting to realize that the loans they were making and selling were possibly going to become a problem. As borrowers started to default into the beginning of 2008, banks began to evaluate their portfolios and project losses. Things didn’t look good. In short, all the banks were going to run out of money unless the government bailed them out. We all know that towards then; end of 2008, the government did just that.

Even though the government loaned the finance industry almost $1 trillion, this was only enough to keep them afloat. Imagine being given just enough medicine to keep you alive, but you’re still bedridden. This is what the banks were dealing with over the course of the year.

Congress gave the banks all of this money, and were shocked to learn the banks were not lending it out to you and me. They asked the banks why they weren’t lending it out. They’re response: “you won’t let us.” Congress told the banks to be more careful with their lending. Because of layoffs and people already borrowing too much, there’s no one out there worth the risk to loan money to.

So the banks do have a little bit of money to loan, but they can’t loan it to us because we’re too risky. What are they doing with all that money? Well they’re loaning it to someone. Businesses? Nope. Investors to buy securities? Nope.

They’re loaning it to the government. Well why does the government need to borrow money? They need to borrow billions of dollars to bail out the banks, thus giving them enough money to loan to us. The problem is, when Congress decided to give the banks this money, they didn’t require that they do anything with it.

The banks are investing in treasury securities. These are sold by the government to raise money. So the government is raising money, by borrowing from banks, to bail out banks. A mess is an understatement.

Congress still doesn’t quite understand that even this is going on. They are still grilling bank executives for not loaning out money, but blaming the recession on them for loaning too much.

If you were looking to invest some money in a safe place to ride out a recession, the government is the place to do it. Generally speaking, the rates at which the government issues their debt are referred to as “risk free” due to the low risk of the government defaulting on their debt.

It’s very tempting to blame the banks for not loaning you money. But look at it from their perspective. They’d love to loan you money, but if they don’t think they’ll make a profit off of you, they aren’t going to loan you the money. So they look for safer investments where they do know they will get paid back. And since the government is loaning the banks money at a cheaper rate than the banks are loaning it back to them, the banks are making a profit.

Don’t blame the banks for doing exactly what they are allowed to do with the money. Blame your Congress who passed the laws allowing the government to loan the banks money, but not passing laws requiring them to loan it to you and me. Government issues their debt are referred to as “risk free” due to the low risk of the government defaulting on their debt.

It’s very tempting to blame the banks for not loaning you money. But look at it from their perspective. They’d love to loan you money, but if they don’t think they’ll make a profit off of you, they aren’t going to loan you the money. So they look for safer investments where they do know they will get paid back. And since the government is loaning the banks money at a cheaper rate than the banks are loaning it back to them, the banks are making a profit.

Don’t blame the banks for doing exactly what they are allowed to do with the money. Blame your Congress who passed the laws allowing the government to loan the banks money, but not passing laws requiring them to loan it to you and me.

Indian GDP rises by 7.9%

I think almost everyone was surprised and wowed by the 7.9% GDP growth — the Indian economy registered in the second quarter. It was an unexpected bit of good news that came out after a longish weekend of uncertainty caused by the Dubai episode.

There is no doubt that stimulus measures played a part in these numbers, but even then, it is quite heartening to see the economy doing well, and especially see manufacturing contribute as much as it did.

The sectors that did well:

  1. Mining and quarrying at 9.5%
  2. Manufacturing at 9.2%
  3. Electricity, gas and water supply at 7.4%
  4. Construction at 6.5%
  5. Hotels, transport and telecom at 8.5%
  6. Financing, insurance, real estate and business services at 7.7%
  7. Community, social and personal services at 12.7%

The third quarter GDP numbers will probably not be as good as these because agriculture is expected to be negative, but the economy seems to be back on track. As the finance minister said, India might even hit 7% growth in the full year.

These numbers point that the stimulus measures can be slowly withdrawn and will probably speed up the process of hiking interest rates and sapping liquidity from the markets.

Inflation has been rearing up its ugly head, and RBI has been making noises about rate hikes for some time now. Now is a probably a good time to start with CRR rate hikes and then gradually move on to interest rates. Everyone seems to be in cautious observation mode, something that has served well in the past. I hope the numbers are not too bad in the third quarter, and we continue to get surprised by good news.

Take gold action!

IMF had announced its intention to sell 400 metric tons of gold a few months ago. They wanted to raise money to lend to weaker nations by selling some of their gold. At that time, — China, Russia and India had evinced interest in buying IMF’s gold.

India finally bought half or — 200 tons of gold from IMF in the last two of weeks of October. The price tag was 6.8 billion dollars, which valued one ounce of gold at 1,045 USD. The transaction was done in hard cash, which I think means that India paid IMF in USD.

A lot of other countries (most notably China) have increased their gold holdings in the last year, so this is no surprise. China’s government holdings of gold increased to 1,045 tons this year from 400 tons in 2003. But, the deal was certainly big enough to push gold to all time highs yesterday.

After last year’s crisis, many countries are looking to diversifying their reserves and reduce their exposure to the US dollar. India had a relatively smaller percentage of gold in its reserves and RBI’s data for October 23rd 2009 shows that the percentage is still below 4%. After October 30th, when the gold purchase is complete, the percentage should have risen to 6%.

RBI Reserves

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Mortgage Loans, Rates and FHA Loans

I saw something interesting in the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey released by The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) last week. This survey indicates the application volume of mortgage loans, and it decreased 3.1% from the earlier week. This decrease in the application volume came at the back of a couple of weeks of gains, and despite the fact that mortgage rates decreased in the week.

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Currency Carry Trade

Currency carry trade refers to the trade, where an investor borrows a currency from a country with a low interest rate, and then invests it in a country that yields a higher interest rate.

The Yen carry trade is the most popular example of the currency carry trade, because Japan has had low interest rates for a fairly long period now. Investors borrowed cheap Japanese Yen, and then bought securities like the US Treasury Bills, which gave them relatively higher interest rates. This type of thing worked really well when exchange rates were stable, and traders could leverage their investments to get great returns. But, the downside is that since two currencies are involved, fluctuations in exchange rates can kill all and any profits you make on your trade.

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