One of the more futile functions of brokerages is to issue targets on indices, and to a lesser extent on stocks. Often these are horribly wrong and almost always, brokerages tend to issue a higher target when the market is going up, and revise it downwards when the market is going down.
These days since the markets are going up, all brokerages are scampering to issue higher Sensex and Nifty targets, and it’s funny to see a whole bunch of them issuing a target that is close to what the others are issuing, and you feel that surely these people are hedging their bets, and don’t mind being wrong in a herd rather than be correct alone.
There’s rarely any accountability on what happened versus what they said and I feel that anyone who uses these targets to buy or sell is doing a great dis-service to themselves.
I’m going to start a post here that collates Sensex targets from various brokers, and at a certain point in future compares them to what the market is actually doing, and see how various brokerages do.
|Brokerage||Target||Target Date||Issue Date|
|Edelweiss||29,000 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Macquarie||28,000 (Sensex)||Mar 31 2015||May-14|
|Deutsche Bank||28,000 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|BNP Paribas SA||28,000 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Nirmal Bang||28,000 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Nomura||27,200 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Bank of America Merrill Lynch||27,000 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Citigroup||26,300 (Sensex)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Goldman Sachs||8,300 (Nifty)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|Sharekhan||8,000 (Nifty)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
|UBS||8,000 (Nifty)||Dec 31 2014||May-14|
The idea is that observing this for an year or two will either show that these targets are close to being right, and have some use or are completely bogus, and that data will be useful for people who are swayed by these things to make decisions to either buy or sell stocks, and will hopefully help them become better investors.
10 thoughts on “Of Brokerages and Sensex Targets”
Let’s revisit this article when brokerages revise their targets and on Dec 31, 2014 …
we was first to pridict that sensex 28000 nifty 8800 in april to june quarter in gujarati business weekly “blue chip”
I’m happy to include your predictions here as well if you’re interested 🙂
Good one !
U can add
Shall be thankful if you please post a web link for this prediction, if the weekly is available online.
Otherwise, just scan the page and upload the image on a website like http://www.imgur.com and post the link here.
Sensex/Nifty up or down need not necessarily influence the investor choice.What matters is the basket of each individual portfolio.Eg in the recent blow up of Sensex/Nifty is only in Banking and Infrastructure sectors.If an individual has in his portfolio shares of sectors other than this
there is actually a minus.
I think it does to a large extent because that is what influences the news and that’s what then affects the environment and people’s moods about whether they should be buying or selling stocks and generally investing the market.
It is good article in present scenario. Their predictions prove wrong in most of the time Better to give a deaf ear to them. I assume this rally will soon be over and market will move on its own merit shortly and better not to be trapped at higher level
Yes, I don’t know if the rally will be over soon or not, but it is inevitable that a lot of people will get trapped at higher levels, and who don’t see the next fall coming.